Bayern Forced to Decide on Indecisive van Gaal

The Louis van Gaal-watch is the 48-point-font headline in the Bundesliga, and although mid-week speculation held the Dutch coach needed a win over Schalke to retain his job, Saturday’s 1-1 draw exhibited enough life from his team to keep van Gaal on at Allainz Arena through the international break. With Bayern now sitting in eighth place, that relative goodwill is unlikely to last for long. Though another tough match awaits them after the break, München stays at home for Round 13, where they will be expected to beat league-leading Bayer Leverkusen. Should they fail to do so, it will be clear to Bayern management that, on the heels of Champions League failure, van Gaal is unable to meet league expectations. At that point, those 48-point headlines will shift from monitoring a job to reporting a job opening.

The van Gaal watch picked-up in earnest mid-week when it became clear München would not make it out of their Champions League group. Their inglorious display on Tuesday against French champions Bordeaux (a 2-0 loss at Allainz), justifiable in the context of having to start a depleted squad, serves as the prime example of what’s gone wrong in the brief van Gaal-era. More than losing that one match, how did the glorious Bayern get into a position where one loss puts them on the brink? In group stage, in league, it’s never about one match. It’s always about what’s led up to it. If you’re Bayern and you face one match to survive (and it’s not the last round of the season or tournament), at some point in the past, something went very wrong.

CSKA Moscow Tries to Derail Rubin Kazan Title Run

The Russian Premier League is in its final three rounds, which (thanks to the international break) will extend through November. Coming into this weekend, Rubin Kazan held a one point lead over nine-time-champions Spartak Moscow, but Spartak stumbled beneath two own goals against previously 10th place Krylya Sovetov, opening the door for Rubin to take a strangle-hold of the title race. With Spartak closing the season against CSKA Moscow and Zenit St. Petersburg, a four point lead for Rubin would be near-insurmountable.

That four point lead depends on their ability to get a result tomorrow at Luzhniki against CSKA. Having not gotten a point from this match-up in three years may mitigate Rubin’s form advantages, but there are other, tactical advantages that should launch Rubin to within breathing distance of their second consecutive title.

Over at Russian Football Now, I describe those advantages in a preview of tomorrow’s match. While you may not want to get up at 6 a.m. Eastern to watch the contest, the preview will still help to familiarize yourself with two clubs threatening to stay in UEFA Champions League into 2010.

Here’s a taste:

Chilean left winger Mark Gonzalez will be dearly missed. If you were to pick a place to attack Rubin’s back line, it might be Lasha Salukvadze, the solid-if-unspectacular Georgian right back. You could argue that it would be better to go at Cristian Ansalde, something CSKA will undoubtedly let Milos Krasic do, but between Ansaldi and Aleksandr Ryazantsev (if he’s deployed on the left), a team plays with fire if they try to tip the pitch to that side. However, with Mark Gonzalez out, that may be a risk Slutsky should take, with the Tomas Necid-Krasic-Alan Dzagoev triangle (that proved so potent on Tuesday) being his best chance to break through a newly impenetrable Rubin line.

You can read the whole preview at Russian Football Now.

Honduras Coming to South Florida (AGAIN)

It’s no great shock to see the Honduran National Team train in Fort Lauderdale or play a friendly locally. But when the Honduran team arrives in these parts on November 15th to prepare for a November 18th friendly against Peru, they will do so as a nation that has qualified for a World Cup. That alone makes this gathering of Honduras squad unique.

During many of the qualifiers this past year, Reinaldo Rueda has gathered his team in South Florida before flying to Central America or the Caribbean for a match. With the large number of Honduran players currently featuring for European squads, South Florida has become a logical and convenient meeting and training point during the international windows.

We’ll have more coverage of the Honduran team here as they approach this friendly and the nation’s first World Cup since 1982.

The potential Honduran squad for this visit is after the jump.  Wigan’s star defender Maynor Figueroa is injured and is unlikely to be with the team.

Detroit and Tampa Bay: USL’s Trump Cards

Few markets are as undeserved, yet as rich in soccer potential as Detroit. Yesterday, USL’s leadership decided to add Detroit as a first division club, bringing the grand total of teams

The nation’s 8th largest TV market and was a successful host during the 1994 World Cup. Dan Duggan, who owns the Michigan Bucks, one of the most successful PDL teams has formed meaningful community partnerships that will make the team’s foray into the  second highest USSF sanctioned professional division successful. You can listen to my interview with Dan Duggan here. The interview conducted this past May, discussed the possibility of the Bucks making such a move.

Detroit has been preparing for such a move for a long time and is a market, that despite the recent volatility in the auto industry ready for big time professional soccer. USL has used trump card in the battle with the TOA : expanding to a big TV market, with a committed owner and a history of incredible success in both PDL and the US Open Cup. The promotion of Detroit also disarms some of the TOA’s argument that has been floated about big markets versus small markets. Detroit is a massive market and they have put their faith in USL.

Other news to come from the USL meetings in Beaverton (the home of Nike) is that Baltimore and Edmonton will also be added to the USL First Division next season along with previously announced Ottawa. I can report the Baltimore entry will be Crystal Palace and Ottawa will be part of the same organization as the current PDL team, Ottawa Fury. Edmonton’s ownership is a mystery.

The two previously announced expansion sides, Tampa Bay and FC New York were in attendance at the meetings. Tampa Bay carries one of the most historic names in American soccer, the Rowdies, and is being run by one of the greatest American players of the NASL generation, Perry Van Der Beck. Despite being an active member of the TOA, Tampa Bay has appeared to have made peace with USL, whose administrative offices are after all just down Dale Mabry Road from where the Rowdies and Mutiny used to play.

The success of these meetings could put the breakaway ideas of the TOA on the defensive. Vancouver and Montreal have an out plan with MLS, but Carolina, Miami and Minnesota have to be seriously concerned that USL’s aggressive plans will grind any momentum the TOA had to halt. (As it stands, Montreal may not be all the way in with the TOA, anyhow)The three clubs who have been scrubbed from the USL website risk not being able to field competitive side in the 2010 season, based on recent developments.

Miami, which is owned by the mega football promotion company Traffic Sports likely has the contacts and connections to find its way out of this hole. But do Carolina and Minnesota? Only time will tell if they can crawl back to USL and take a dose of humble pie, or work with Miami, and the two Canadian clubs to create a breakaway drawing in some current PDL or NPSL sides. That possibility is still on the table, although losing Tampa and seeing USL promote Detroit makes the TOA’s big market vs small market argument less relevant.

Any concerns about USL’s existence going forward can now be quelled. It is the TOA and its member  clubs that now find themselves both on the defensive and in the unenviable position of having to quickly change the terms of the debate otherwise risk falling into oblivion.  For lovers of the beautiful game in Alberta, Michigan, Ontario, Maryland, Florida and on Long Island, the TOA dispute should matter little. USL Professional Soccer is coming to a stadium near you.

Thoughts on American TV Ratings: FSC and ESPN on Different Courses

Fox Soccer Channel released its Nielson ratings for the public this week, and it showed growth in almost all areas of football coverage on the network. The biggest winner was the Barclays Premier League and other English theme/styled programs such as Sky Sports News and Fox Football Phone-In.

The network’s Major League Soccer ratings are up from last year (truthfully, they couldn’t get much worse than they were last year) but Serie A continues to struggle on FSC and the network has stated it has little interest in building the brands of WPS, USL or College Soccer, viewing the American leagues as filler programming.

Fox Soccer Channel, perhaps wisely from a business perspective has decided to build its brand almost exclusively around English Football. Not European Football (even though the network now has UEFA Champions League rights) but around anything English. The network has made little outward effort to build the brand recognitions of Serie A, MLS, Argentine Football, WPS, USL, etc when compared to the Premier League.

FSC’s tact stands in direct contrast to ESPN. This is more likely than not, the difference between a subscriber based channel, and a mainstream sports one. ESPN has worked tirelessly to increase MLS’  brand, and as I wrote on Monday, the league now enjoys higher ratings on the network than anytime since the glory days (at least from a TV ratings standpoint) of the late 1990s. MLS is currently beating the Premier League on ESPN, a mainstream sports channel, where casual fans gravitate. The viewership for USMNT matches on ESPN are even higher than that of MLS, and rival those of the Champions League knock out stages, when ESPN had the rights to UEFA’s signature club competition.

USL/TOA Update: Lawyers Entering the Picture

As the saga between the USL and the TOA enters its third month, lawyers are now being summoned potentially to play a big role in the outcome.

We can report that the TOA has approached a connected attorney in the US Soccer community who could be handling either:

a- The application process to the USSF and CSA

b- Any litigation with USL on behalf of TOA members.

USL itself, we are told by sources, have been looking at legal options not only to prevent the TOA from forming a new league, but also potentially to replace TOA owners with new franchises in certain key markets. Keep in mind, USL’s new owner/CEO Alek Papadakis is a contract lawyer who has specifically dealt with franchise issues in his Atlanta based legal career.

From this we can presume USL has not made moves based on Public Relations considerations, but probably on legal considerations. This would appear to give the USL the legal high ground in its battle with the TOA.

However, it is somewhat striking the about-face, U-turn Papadakis was forced to make last week, one day waving goodbye to two Canadian franchises and the next day committing to set up a Canadian administrative office for the league. Whether it was sound legal strategy combined with bad PR instinct or something else, is up to the reader to determine.

Furthermore, we have been told that on matters of player contracts and franchise agreements, the USSF which does have the final say in the matter is favorably inclined towards the TOA. (This has been previously reported by Brian Quarstad of our partner site, Inside Minnesota Soccer) The meeting which TOA leaders held with MLS Commissioner Don Garber, as well as their presentations to Garber and USSF head Sunil Gulati, we are told were far better received than similar conversations between USL’s Tampa based administration and the USSF/MLS.

We have received no word on whether or not the Canadian Soccer Association would sanction the new league. But based on our reporting, should the TOA get past first base in the application process, the leadership of both the USSF and MLS are favorably disposed towards whatever course the owners group chooses to pursue. From the standpoint of the USSF, losing good owners and clubs/potential clubs in critical markets is not acceptable according to one source. MLS has a similar concern as the league seeks build a more national footprint: losing critical markets for the sport, before MLS is ready to expand there, particularly in the Southeast and Florida is not something Commissioner Garber wants to deal with we are told.

The Federation, we are told realizes the vital importance of certain mid-sized and large markets currently in USL and does not want to jeopardize those markets not having professional soccer for an extended period of time. Atlanta for example, has already gone one season without a team despite having its own stadium because of a dispute between the Silverbacks ownership and USL.

Our sources have asked to remain anonymous at this critical time. However, these are not off the record sources. We have more off the record information and deep background sources which have allowed us to paint a broader picture, but we still have been exposed to some information that we cannot reveal.

A quick word on criticisms. It became fashionable among some bloggers and message board writers to take issue with Inside Minnesota Soccer’s Brian Quarstad and myself for not revealing off the record information regarding the brewing TOA/USL dispute over the summer. As has been reported and speculated about on other websites, both of us had been aware of the brewing dispute for many months and did not report the information because our sources were off the record.

While we are not proper journalists, we do have certain standards of ethics we abide by and betraying off the record sources is not something  either of us will do.  Moreover, our off the record sources allow us to paint a broader and more complete picture on these issues when information does become public.

Manchester City: Searching for Answers

 

 

 

 

 

Given Saves The Day/Sky Sports Photo

 

 

Manchester City’s return to glory 2009-10 campaign has officially ground to a halt. Four successive draws coupled with some unattractive football have the critics coming out for Mark Hughes.

But in a Premiership season that has been more competitive at the top than any in recent memory, City’s consistent draws away from home have left the side in a good position to remain in the top six all season.

Hughes clearly has some difficult decisions to make about the squad. Vincent Kompany, whose return was heralded by some, including myself as a solution to City’s defensive woes was regularly out of position on Sunday. Micah Richards has already demonstrated that he has slipped tremendously from being considered for England, to being perhaps only a marginal Premier League player.

Continue Reading at Man City Blog.com

Turkcell Super League – week 11 – Saturday action

Saturday action in the Turkcell Super League featured two matches.  One saw Bursaspor, who are the surprising second place team after last week’s action, going on the road in a tricky road tie against Antalyaspor.  The other saw Beşiktaş, on a three game league winning streak, facing Ankaragücü at the Inonu Stadium.

What are Europe’s Most Popular Football Clubs?

I recently had the opportunity to interview Simon Kuper about his new book Soccernomics, which in classic Kuper style is an educational and page turning must read. Kuper has an interesting table in his book listing the most popular football clubs in Europe. These are not rankings of domestic fans but for throughout the continent.

(numbers in millions)

1. Barcelona     44.2
2. Real Madrid  41.9
3. Man U            37.6
4. Chelsea 25.6
5. Zenit St Petersburg    23.0
6. Liverpool   23.0
7. Arsenal  21.3
8. AC Milan   21.0
9. FC Bayern  19.8
10. Juventus   17.5
11. CSKA Moscow 11.1
12. Inter            10.3
13. Olympique Lyon   9.4
14. Olympique Marseille 9.4
15. Galatasaray 9.0
16. Spartak Moscow  8.1
17. Fenerbache  7.3
18. Wisla Krakow 6.5
19. Ajax   6.5
20. Dynamo Moscow 5.7

Turkcell Super League – Fenerbahce-Galatasaray aftermath.

The Professional Football Disciplinary Committee (PDFK) has handed down punishments after the all of the incidents occurring during the Fenerbahce-Galatasaray derby.  Due to the Fenerbahce fans throwing water bottles onto the field, Fenerbahce will have to play their next two home games behind closed doors.  Fenerbahce’s Fabio Bilica has been suspended for three games due to his involvement in the Arda Turan-Cristian Baroni altercation, in which he struck Turan.  Abdul Kader Keita of Galatasaray was also suspended for three games for his punch, and resulting direct red card, to Fenerbahce’s Roberto Carlos.